A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
